Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 12.919940 14.598000 16.546713 19.011734 22.098877 25.912301 31.105713
2024-10-06 10.912283 12.939530 15.489995 19.037766 24.030966 31.140864 42.769781
2024-10-13 9.367202 11.419050 14.124812 18.116616 24.184144 33.746257 51.839503
2024-10-20 8.232702 10.224107 12.935747 17.105585 23.813001 35.253716 59.760541
2024-10-27 7.400136 9.321735 12.004147 16.267112 23.450518 36.565658 68.089863
2024-11-03 7.504091 9.712484 12.947162 18.437742 28.635033 50.322807 120.292530
2024-11-10 7.288499 9.608518 13.121366 19.371992 31.866430 62.005423 192.321556
2024-11-17 6.719947 8.923411 12.304128 18.436099 31.077957 63.330007 225.393787
2024-11-24 6.385906 8.566069 11.973724 18.326046 32.027240 70.106612 318.687789
2024-12-01 6.057992 8.191712 11.576640 18.028440 32.478166 75.768635 446.710475
2024-12-08 5.809520 7.922913 11.329147 17.979903 33.511735 84.313667 728.885808
2024-12-15 5.627267 7.745313 11.218438 18.183034 35.240979 97.282692 1618.124069
2024-12-22 5.355933 7.421576 10.852003 17.869250 35.694902 106.381295 4175.448727
2024-12-29 5.155112 7.200475 10.649011 17.875258 37.082601 122.468642 165751.356729
2025-01-05 4.855372 6.798320 10.089400 17.037300 35.770516 122.257666 NaN
2025-01-12 4.567830 6.402894 9.517901 16.116856 34.028289 118.220260 NaN
2025-01-19 4.321909 6.066419 9.035417 15.351553 32.635575 115.704082 NaN
2025-01-26 4.446906 6.357860 9.727635 17.328842 40.736761 202.464596 NaN
2025-02-02 4.417165 6.381811 9.917803 18.176073 45.572951 296.184933 NaN
2025-02-09 4.204417 6.076217 9.447041 17.327350 43.527100 285.348041 NaN
2025-02-16 4.084808 5.929142 9.279076 17.227399 44.535869 335.190177 NaN
2025-02-23 3.955266 5.758767 9.054427 16.956954 44.762975 375.795131 NaN
2025-03-02 3.856476 5.638618 8.922485 16.912824 45.990000 457.514070 NaN